Spatial variation in abundance of the junin virus hosts in endemic and nonendemic Argentine haemorrhagic fever zones

Abstract

Argentine haemorrhagic fever (AHF) is caused by Junin (JUN) virus, which is hosted by the drylands vesper mouse (Calomys musculinus). In this work we monitored population abundance of C. musculinus and rodent assemblages for 3 years in and outside the AHF endemic zones (northern Buenos Aires, southern Córdoba and Santa Fe Provinces, Argentina). The study area was divided into endemic and nonendemic zones. In the endemic zone epidemic sites were recognized, characterized by recent emergence and maintenance of AHF cases, and also historical sites, characterized by decreased incidence or disappearance of AHF human cases. In the nonendemic zone AHF has never been recognized. Although differences were statistically significant only during some periods, population abundance of C. musculinus was usually lower in the nonendemic sites. The pattern and magnitude of seasonal fluctuations in C. musculinus populations were also distinct in the nonendemic sites as compared to endemic sites. The relative abundance of C. musculinus in rodent assemblage was lower in nonendemic sites than in the endemic sites. The lower population densities and dampened seasonal dynamics may be at least partly responsible for the absence of AHF cases in the nonendemic zone. It is suggested that the balance between intra and interspecific interactions might be the cause of the pattern of incidence and prevalence of pathogens in the host species.